A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
