Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
